Saturday, 19. August 2017  
04.05.2017 20:32
Author: Nic Wright

STOCK SCREEN: Potential Turnaround Situations With Significant Upside To Intrinsic Value (Part 2: Southeastern Europe)

 

Investing in distressed companies can produce enormous gains, if the recovery is successful. However, almost two third of all distressed companies don't recover, and some decay into bankruptcy, where equity holders usually get wiped out and bond holders may get a partial or full recovery.

 

In looking for ideas this week, we screen, in part 2 of our Turnaround Stock Screen series, the Southeastern region of Europe for companies that have declined in market value over the last 5 years, are significantly below our AVM’s fair value and have stabilized in market value during the last 6 months. Above that we require supportive director’s dealings within the last 12 months.

 

Here are the filter criteria:

1. Market capitalization above 0.5bn.

2. Above 20 percent Upside according to at least one of our AVM’s fair value estimate.

3. Share purchases by directors within last 12 months.

 

Here is our list of stocks matching all criteria in alphabetical order. Company names in the table below are linked to the ANALYZER, our single stock analysis tool. Intrinsic Value Model assumptions can be adapted in the MODELER, our modeling and forecasting environment:

CLICK COMPANY NAME FOR DETAILED STOCK VALUE ANALYSIS

COUNTRY

LAST PRICE

MARKET CAP.

MEAN MULTIPLE UPSIDE [%]

GRAHAM UPSIDE [%]

GREENBLATT UPSIDE [%]

PRICE / BOOK

DIVIDEND YIELD [%]

 AEGEAN AIRLINES

 Greece

7.95

568

-38.0

9.2

87.4

2.5

6.1

 ALPHA BANK AE

 Greece

2.23

3442

174.3

-100.0

-100.0

0.4

0.0

 ASTALDI SPA

 Italy

6.05

595

20.8

218.5

201.0

0.8

3.8

 ASTM SPA

 Italy

14.39

1425

58.5

105.7

51.7

2.1

3.0

 BANCA IFIS SPA

 Italy

38.55

2074

-2.7

-15.3

117.4

1.6

2.3

 CAIRO COMMUNICATIONS SPA

 Italy

4.66

627

21.5

35.5

6.1

2.0

2.3

 CIR SPA

 Italy

1.47

1171

74.9

-34.1

-68.0

1.1

3.1

 GEOX SPA

 Italy

2.51

651

40.6

-31.2

-100.0

1.7

2.0

 MOTOR OIL (HELLAS) SA

 Greece

15.83

1754

-4.0

25.0

54.0

1.9

5.5

 MYTILINEOS HOLDINGS S.A.

 Greece

7.02

821

32.2

56.6

48.1

0.7

3.6

 NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE

 Greece

0.31

2808

84.5

-100.0

-100.0

0.4

0.0

 OPAP SA

 Greece

8.94

2852

277.2

427.2

522.8

2.9

6.9