Wednesday, 28. June 2017  
16.03.2017 23:08
Author: NIc Wright

STOCK SCREEN: Luxury Goods Stocks With Solid Upside To Our AVM’s Intrinsic Value

 

The luxury industry comprises various segments like luxury cars, luxury hospitality and personal luxury goods, which together account for approximately 80% of the total market.

 

The overall industry has posted steady growth in 2016, with luxury cars as the top-performing segment growing 8% helped by strong sales in China, followed by luxury hospitality up 4% including luxury cruises up 5% and fine restaurants driven by growth in luxury travel, while the market for personal luxury goods was flat.

 

With the economy gaining traction, the luxury industry could be off to a strong start in 2017. EU tourist data point to a strong Chinese New Year with Mainland China data robust and Hong Kong improving, while Russians are apparently coming back.

 

In this context, we screen for luxury stocks with most upside to intrinsic value according to our AVM’s estimates.

 

Here are the filter criteria:

1. Market capitalization above 1bn.

2. Cheap according to our AVM’s Mean Multiple and Graham approach.

 

Here is our list of stocks matching all criteria in alphabetical order. Company names in the table below are linked to the ANALYZER, our single stock analysis tool. Intrinsic Value Model assumptions can be adapted in the MODELER, our modeling and forecasting environment:

CLICK COMPANY NAME FOR DETAILED STOCK VALUE ANALYSIS

INDUSTRY

LAST PRICE

MARKET CAP.

MEAN MULTIPLE UPSIDE [%]

GRAHAM UPSIDE [%]

PRICE / EARNINGS

DIVIDEND YIELD [%]

 BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AG

 Car Manufacturers

83.56

54144

199.9

84.2

8.2

4.1

 CHRISTIAN DIOR SE

 Apparel

206.45

37266

58.5

113.5

17.1

2.0

 COACH INC

 Retail

38.97

10936

28.3

21.6

18.1

3.7

 DAIMLER AG-REGISTERED SHARES

 Car Manufacturers

70.74

75685

0.3

63.7

8.3

4.8

 FIAT CHRYSLER AUTOMOBILES NV

 Car Manufacturers

10.42

15894

118.3

100.8

4.3

0.2

 FORD MOTOR CO

 Car Manufacturers

12.55

49879

23.3

24.2

7.7

5.2

 GAP INC/THE

 Retail

23.70

9453

30.2

97.3

12.1

4.1

 ILG INC

 Lodging

18.40

2291

30.6

86.1

15.0

2.5

 MARKS & SPENCER GROUP PLC

 Retail

328.20

5332

21.4

17.1

11.1

6.1

 SPORTS DIRECT INTERNATIONAL

 Retail

296.50

1692

147.7

73.3

16.2

0.0

 STEVEN MADDEN LTD

 Apparel

37.60

2252

7.0

14.7

18.6

0.0

 SUPERGROUP PLC

 Retail

1472.00

1197

59.3

2.4

15.2

1.8

 VOLKSWAGEN AG

 Car Manufacturers

145.44

72195

111.8

68.7

6.1

1.7