Wednesday, 22. November 2017  
04.01.2017 19:39
Author: Nic Wright

STOCK SCREEN: Oil & Gas Stocks Intrinsic Value Upside Check

 

Brent prices were up in December, reaching an average of $54.92 per barrel vs. $47.10 in November. The agreement between OPEC and non-OPEC countries to cut production has driven crude prices to the highest levels since July 2015.

 

2017 will inevitably be another big year for crude watchers as the truth over whether oil producing countries will cap output is made clear. Jan. 1 marked the official start of the deal agreed by OPEC and non-OPEC member countries in November last year to reduce production by almost 1.8M barrels per day.

 

As crude is pushing higher, with WTI +0.5% to $54/bbl, we screen the Oil & Gas sector and check the stocks for Margin-Of-Safety according to our AVM’s Intrinsic Stock Value estimates.

 

Here are the filter criteria:

1. Market capitalization above 5bn.

2. Dividend Yield above 3 percent.

 

Despite high dividend yields, valuation upside seems capped in the sector after the recent share price run. Here is our list of stocks in alphabetical order. Company names in the table below are linked to the ANALYZER, our single stock analysis tool. Intrinsic Value Model assumptions can be adapted to analyse different growth scenarios with our MODELER forecasting tool:

CLICK COMPANY NAME FOR DETAILED STOCK VALUE ANALYSIS

LAST PRICE

MARKET CAP.

MEAN MULTIPLE UPSIDE [%]

GRAHAM UPSIDE [%]

GREENBLATT UPSIDE [%]

PRICE / BOOK

DIVIDEND YIELD [%]

 BP PLC

516,10

123285

-37,9

-56,4

-100,0

1,3

6,2

 CHEVRON CORP

117,85

222474

-57,1

-40,5

-71,7

1,4

3,9

 ENI SPA

15,56

56548

-28,8

9,4

-100,0

1,1

5,1

 EXXON MOBIL CORP

90,89

376893

-40,1

-2,9

-32,8

2,1

3,4

 HELMERICH & PAYNE

78,76

8520

-57,9

-51,4

-74,8

1,8

4,0

 MURPHY OIL CORP

31,63

5447

-64,6

-100,0

-100,0

1,0

3,9

 NESTE OYJ

36,17

9274

-54,5

-69,9

-70,5

2,5

3,2

 OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP

72,27

55228

-54,0

-33,8

-61,7

2,5

4,4

 REPSOL SA

13,58

19903

-10,8

-42,4

-100,0

0,7

5,1

 ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC-B SHS

2368,50

231875

-56,1

-54,8

-100,0

1,2

6,4

 TOTAL SA

48,61

118109

-31,8

21,4

-70,6

1,3

5,3

 VALERO ENERGY CORP

70,42

31877

-52,0

-20,5

-23,2

1,5

3,7

 VERMILION ENERGY INC

57,14

6725

-42,6

-66,3

-92,9

4,1

4,8

 WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LTD

31,30

19138

8,1

-15,2

-20,3

1,3

3,7