Fundamental Value Analysis

Fundamental stock valuation and intrinsic stock value estimates worldwide. Fair value calculations based on Graham & Dodd and Joel Greenblatt, analyzing long-term financial statement data.

How To Use:

  1. At the beginning of this analysis you'll find basic company and stock information, and estimates of absolute Fair Stock Value and Margin Of Safety calculated by our automated valuation model (AVM) .
  2. In middle of this analysis our AVM's fair stock value estimates are visualized in a 12-month stock chart, and in a %-Upside aka Margin-Of-Safety chart (see Description below), followed by historical charts of sales and sales growth, valuation and operating profit margin and, net income as reported. Trend lines and average lines in these historical charts can assist you in building your own unbiased expectation of the future.
  3. In the final part of this analysis you'll find the historical stock price performance, equity and balance sheet risk ratios, and traditional valuation multiples (on a ttm basis) including cyclically adjusted P/E.

Regarding fair stock value estimates please note that the Graham model asumes that profits will revert to the mean over the cycle, while the Greenblatt model assumes future profits will broadly follow their historical trend.

To run this analysis directly from your spreadsheet, use the Excel hyperlink function =HYPERLINK( "http://www.valueexplorer.com/analyzer/company/" & ISIN ). Look up International Securities IDs (ISINs) in our Screener or at www.isin.org.


To start your value analysis, just type in a new Company Name or ISIN and click your stock in the selection list pop-up:


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ValueExplorer.com - Fundamental Stock Analysis

Last Price: 152.72
Latest News: Google Finance
Country: US
Group: Banks
Sector: Financial
Market Cap. Mio: 68643
Enterprise Value: 504561

FAIR STOCK VALUE ESTIMATES:

Mean Multiple Value: 224.04
Graham Intrinsic Value: 217.47
Greenblatt Fair Value: 219.15

UPSIDE TO FAIR STOCK VALUE (MARGIN-OF-SAFETY):

Mean Multiple Upside [%]: 46.7
Graham Upside [%]: 42.4
Greenblatt Upside [%]: 43.5
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HISTORICAL STOCK PRICE PERFORMANCE:

1-month Perf. [%]: -10.1
3-month Perf. [%]: -14.4
6-month Perf. [%]: -4.6
12-month Perf. [%]: 2.4

EQUITY RISK and FINANCIAL LEVERAGE:

Equity Risk: Medium
NetDebt/EBITDA: 34.8

TRADITIONAL VALUATION MULTIPLES:

Curr. EV/Sales: 15.2
Mean EV/Sales: 10.6
Curr. Oper. Mrg. [%]: 30.4
Mean Oper. Mrg. [%]: 31.7
P/BV: 1
ROE [%]: 11
Dividend Yield [%]: 1.4
EV/EBITDA (FY1): 0
EV/EBITDA (FY2): 0
P/E (FY1): 9.3
P/E (FY2): 9
Cyclically Adj. P/E: 10.84

LINK TO THIS COMPANY ANALYSIS:


 

 

DESCRIPTION:

Trend lines are determined using linear regression. Average lines are calculated on the basis of the arithmetic mean. Cyclically Adjusted PE ratio is a modification of the PE ratio to account for the effect on profits of the economic cycle.

Our Automated Valuation Model employs three distinct methods to estimate the fair value of a given stock:

  1. Mean Multiple Value: fair value based on the long-term historical average stock valuation multiple, i.e., EV/Sales or P/BV for financials, respectively .
  2. Graham Intrinsic Value: fair value based on capitalized long-term average earnings.
  3. Greenblatt Fair Value: fair value based on capitalized sustainable trend earnings.

Both the Graham and the Greenblatt Value method are based on the income approach to business valuation, while the Mean Multiple Value method is based on the market approach to business valuation. The Graham model assumes that future profits will revert to their historical mean over the cycle. The Greenblatt model assumes that future profits will broadly follow their historical sustainable  trend.

Upside to Fair Value, also known as Margin of Safety, is defined as the percentage difference between the fair value estimate of a stock and its last price.

Growing and declining businesses: Deviations between the Graham Intrinsic Value and the Greenblatt Fair Value arise when a given company's earnings are on a long-term upward trend, i.e. structurally grow, or when they are on a long-term downward trend, i.e. structurally decline:

  1. Indication for a growing business: Greenblatt Upside greater than Graham Upside.
  2. Indication for a declining business: Greenblatt Upside less than Graham Upside.

Going-concern: Fair value estimates are based on the going-concern principle, which is a basic concept in accounting that assumes a company will continue to operate in the foreseeable future. The significance of this concept becomes apparent when the value of a running business is compared with the value of one being liquidated.

Companies in decline: Caution is warranted on companies with declining long-term profitability and stocks with unusually high fair value upside as the going-concern principle might be impaired.

 

 

 

  

IMPORTANT INFORMATION: This information has been prepared solely for information purposes and is not an advice to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any particular trading strategy. This information is based on or derived from information generally available to the public from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. We do not undertake to update this information. Certain assumptions may have been made in the analysis that resulted in any information and returns/results detailed herein. No representation is made that any results/returns indicated would be achieved or that all assumptions in achieving these returns have been considered or stated. Changes to the assumptions may have a material impact on any results/returns detailed. ValueExplorer.com disclaim any and all liability relating to this information, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, this information. Past performance and, where applicable, simulations and forecasts are no reliable indicators of future results. Price and availability are subject to change without notice. ValueExplorer.com does not give investment, tax, accounting and legal or regulatory advice and prospective investors should consult with their professional advisors. This communication is a marketing communication. It should not be regarded as an investment research recommendation and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Unless stated otherwise, the material contained herein has not been based on a consideration of any individual client circumstances and as such should not be considered to be a personal investment recommendation. Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making an investment decision based on the information provided from using this site. Unless stated otherwise, ValueExplorer.com or its staff has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions, and does not and will not receive direct or indirect compensation for mentioning a security. The names of individuals appearing on this site are for identification purposes of the methodology only and are not intended to suggest or imply any affiliation with or endorsement or even agreement with this report personally by such persons, or any knowledge or approval by such persons of the content of this report. All trademarks, service marks and tradenames appearing in this report are the property of their respective owners, and are likewise used for identification purposes only (legal disclaimer).

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