Fundamental Value Analysis
Fundamental stock valuation and intrinsic stock values worldwide. Fair value calculation based on Graham & Dodd and Joel Greenblatt, analyzing long-term financial statement data.
How To Use:
- At the beginning of this analysis you'll find basic company and stock information, followed by fair value and margin of safety estimates.
- In the chart section you'll find the fair value estimates visualized as a) 12-month stock chart including fair value levels, b) % Upside from last price to fair value, aka margin of safety (see Description below), followed by historical charts of a) sales and sales growth, b) valuation and operating profit margin and, c) net income, as reported. Trend lines and average lines in the charts can assist you in building your own unbiased expectation of the future.
- Finally you'll find the historical stock price performance, the risk section and traditional valuation multiples (ttm) including the cyclically adjusted P/E.
Notice that the Graham model asumes that profits will revert to the mean over the cycle, while the Greenblatt model assumes future profits will broadly follow their historical trend.
To run this analysis directly from your spreadsheet, use the Excel hyperlink function =HYPERLINK( "http://www.valueexplorer.com/analyzer/company/" & ISIN ). Easily lookup ISINs (International Securities ID) with our Screener or at www.isin.org.
To start your value analysis, just type in a new Company Name or ISIN and click your stock in the selection list pop-up:
Trend lines are determined using linear regression. Average lines are calculated on the basis of the arithmetic mean. Cyclically Adjusted PE ratio is a modification of the PE ratio to account for the effect on profits of the economic cycle.
Our Automated Valuation Model employs three distinct methods to estimate the fair value of a given stock:
- Mean Multiple Value: fair value based on the long-term historical average stock valuation multiple, i.e., EV/Sales or P/BV for financials, respectively .
- Graham Intrinsic Value: fair value based on capitalized long-term average earnings.
- Greenblatt Fair Value: fair value based on capitalized sustainable trend earnings.
Both the Graham and the Greenblatt Value method are based on the income approach to business valuation, while the Mean Multiple Value method is based on the market approach to business valuation. The Graham model assumes that future profits will revert to their historical mean over the cycle. The Greenblatt model assumes that future profits will broadly follow their historical sustainable trend.
Upside to fair value, also known as margin of safety, is defined as the percentage difference between the fair value estimate of a stock and its last price.
Growing and declining businesses: Deviations between the Graham Intrinsic Value and the Greenblatt Fair Value arise when a given company's earnings are on a long-term upward trend, i.e. structurally grow, or when they are on a long-term downward trend, i.e. structurally decline:
- Indication for a growing business: Greenblatt Upside greater than Graham Upside.
- Indication for a declining business: Greenblatt Upside less than Graham Upside.
Going-concern: Fair value estimates are based on the going-concern principle, which is a basic concept in accounting that assumes a company will continue to operate in the foreseeable future. The significance of this concept becomes apparent when the value of a running business is compared with the value of one being liquidated.
Companies in decline: Caution is warranted on companies with declining long-term profitability and stocks with unusually high fair value upside as the going-concern principle might be impaired.
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